Spain is positioned as a global referent in the energy transition thanks to its ambitious energy and climate change policies. According to the report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Spain aspires to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with 100% renewable energy in the electricity mix and 97% in the total energy mix. This will only be possible by adopting renewable energies, improving energy efficiency and boosting electrification. However, green hydrogen will also play a crucial role, especially to decarbonise sectors such as industry and transport, as well as to store surplus renewable energy, reducing energy waste (curtialment).
In fact, green or renewable hydrogen is consolidating as a crucial energy vector to reach the decarbonisation of the Spanish energy system. With 20% of European electrolysis projects announced, Spain leads the way, followed by Denmark (12%) and Germany (10%). These three countries could generate more than 40% of Europe´s low-emission hydrogen by 2030.
Hydrogen, the most abundant chemical element in the universe, is not found in its pure state in nature and must be produced. Its sustainability depends on the method of production. Green hydrogen is produced by electrolysis powered by renewable energies, without generating polluting emissions, making it an indispensable ally in meeting global climate targets.
This resource offers a viable solution for storing renewable energy and decarbonising difficult sectors such as industry and transport. At CARTIF, we have carried out an exhaustive analysis using advanced energy models to explore how this vector could be implemented in different future scenarios. To do so, we have used tools such as LEAP and other prospective methodologies that allow us to assess economic, social and environmental impacts.
Context and objectives
The main objective of this analysis is to know the possibilities of integrating renewable hydrogen in Spain as a key strategy for achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This study is based on three fundamental scenarios that describe different development trajectories:
- Trending: represents a trend development of the energy system without the application of additional masures since 2019.
- PNIEC Objective: considers the policies and objectives set out in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC)
- Ambitious: proposes a high penetration of the renewable hydrogen, alligned with the goals of the European Hydrogen Roadmap.
This analysis also includes a comprehensive approach to assess economic, social and environmental impacts, thus allowing for the identification of barriers and opportunities for the energy transition in Spain.
To carry out this analysis, a simulation model was developed in the LEAP tool, capable of projecting both energy demand and generation over long-term time horizons. The model combines:
- Socioeconomic projections, including variables such as PIB an population evolution.
- Historical data on energy consumption and generation, essential to establish a base year reference
- Specific scenarios that include different hydrogen penetration levels.
- Key technologies integration such as electrolysers and hydrogen storage in salt caverns.
In addition, differnt national and international energy policies were evaluated, such as the Spanish Hydrogen Roadmap and the European Union´s vision of a “Clean planet for all”, as well as emission restrictions and reaching a certain percentage of renewables by 2050.
In the baseline scenario, where energy policies for demand reduction and decarbonisation aren´t considered, total energy demand in Spain would increase by 7% between 2020 and 2050. This growth is due to an increase ithe electrification of key sectors, following the trend observed so far. The PNIEC Objective scenario contemplate a much more significant improvement in energy efficiency and, above all, transitions from very energy intensive technologies to less energy intensive options (e.g. buses) or electricity consuming alternatives (e.g. heat pumps), using 40% less total energy in 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, there is a higher electrification (an increase of 26.6% between 2019 and 2050). In the scenarios that include hydrogen, electricity consumption in electrolysers is increased in exchange for decreasing the use of fossil fuels in the overall energy system.
In terms of electricity sector supply, scenarios with hydrogen storage manage to reduce the renewable energy that cannot be harnessed due to lack of demand, known as curtailment, by up to 68%, allowing for greater efficiency in the use of renewable energies and avoiding oversized investments in installed capacity. This is mainly due to hydrogen´s ability to act as a energy storage vector, transforming surplus renewable generation into hydrogen that can be stored and used in periods of high demand or low renewable production. In addition, hydrogen systems such as electrolysers and fuel cells also improve the flexibility of the electricity system, enabling more efficient integration of intermittent sources such as solar and wind. These technological advances also reduce reliance on non-renewable sources during periods of high demand, consolidating a more sustainable energy system.
In terms of emissions, in the baseline scenario CO2 equivalent emissions increaseslightly until 2050 due to limited electrification and continued dependence on fossil fuels.
The PNIEC objective scenario reduce emissions by 30% between 2019 and 2050, partially meeting climate objectives. A 100% renewable electricity grid is reach, although with a large investment. However, the 90% emission reduction target compared to1990 is not reached due to emissions caused by energy demand from other sectors.
Similar to the case of costs, in the basic hydrogen penetration scenario, emissions are reduced slightly, but not significantly. In the ambitious hydrogen scenario, thanks to a high penetration of electrolysers and energy storage, a 90% reduction in emissions is achieved, in line with the climate neutrality proposed by the PNIEC.
Conclusions
The integration of renewable hydrogen into the Spanish energy system is essential to reach climate objectives and decarbonise key sectors such as industry and transport. The results of this study highlightthat:
- It is essential to incorporate energy storage technologies, such as hydrogen, to maximise the use of renewable energies and reduce the losses and cost overruns associated with curtailment.
- Current policies need to be strengthened and updated to ensure that the 2050 objectives are met, including incentives for the installation of electrolysers and hydrogen storage.
- Increased investment in R&D for the development of hydrogen technologies will improve the economic and environmental sustainability of the system
- Good planning of the energy transition towards climate neutrality is very importnat, with parallel efforts on decarbonisation of electricity generation and energy demand, and renewable hydrogen generation.
At CARTIF, we not only develop innovative technological solutions that drive the transition to decarbonised energy systems, but we also provide detailed energy reports and studies such as this one, designed to support institutions and companies in making key decisions for a sustainable future.
Co-author
Pablo Serna Bravo. Industrial Engineer. He has been working at CARTIF since 2023 as a researcher specialising in hydrogen, energy modelling and global energy policy analysis.
